Tuesday 15 May 2012

Declinism? No thanks, I'll decline

Excellent 40-minute slot this evening on Radio 4 from David Aaronovitch entitled Things Ain't What They Used To Be. Punchy but thought-provoking, it was the type of programme Radio 4 does very well.

I'm with Aaronovitch on the topic in hand. Look at history with any sort of informed clarity and it's surely evident that things have got a lot better for much of the world. We may therefore also believe, quite logically, that they will continue to do so.

On average, we experience lives that are healthier, longer-lived, more peaceful, safer and admittedly less contented than ever before. And looking forward, without taking an absurdly Panglossian outlook, I don't find it that hard to believe that we will find solutions to the world's great challenges. I even suspect the current economic hardships, awful though they are for many right now, will be seen to have positive effects (more of which in future post, no doubt).

The programme asked why pessimism appears to be the default setting in human psychology. One academic posited a fascinating idea. Early humans needed to pay more attention to negative news because it demanded immediate action, unlike most good news. A shout of "lion coming" was much more urgent than one of "no lions around today". This kind of evolutionary reductionism, although easily dismissed, appeals greatly to me. I'm happy to think that there may be a direct link between that alarm call on the ancient savannah and the endless cycle of bad news stories that dominate the media.

So pessimism prevails. What wasn't explained was why it is so unappealing in other people. We naturally are drawn to more upbeat friends, partners and leaders. Optimism is attractive.

To answer my own question, I guess the appeal of optimism is the flip side of pessimism. When the call of "lion" goes out, we fear the worst but are drawn to those who have an optimistic solution that could lead to safety. Despair and inaction will get you eaten.

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