The age of sport

I was interested to learn that Roger Federer was the first Wimbledon finalist since Jimmy Connors to have passed his 30th birthday. Meanwhile, 2011 Tour de France winner Cadel Evans was the oldest rider to seal the yellow jersey in Paris in the post-war era. This year, at 35 and a half, he looks well past his prime.

So what is the peak age in sport? I looked at details of the current top 15 ranked players across 4 sports (using the final placings at the 2012 Tour for cycling, and official world rankings for the other sports). That analysis produced the averages shown in the chart below. And the optimum age to excel on the international sporting stage, based on my not very scientific analysis, is... 30 years 7 months.

It's surprising to see that there is not much divergence between the mean ages of elite players in these 4 sports, despite their very different physical demands. You might expect golfers to be considerably older than stars of sports that require more speed, reaction and agility. But, at an average age of 33, the world's top golfers are only a couple of years older than their counterparts in cycling and cricket.

In fact, the youngest player in the entire group of sportsmen I analysed was a golfer, Rory McIlroy, at 23 years 2 months. That said, the oldest - Steve Stricker (45) - is also a denizen of the fairways. Clearly golfers can hope for greater longevity than cyclists, tennis players or cricketers.

Tennis stars are the relative babies of the group. Roger Federer, who is 31 in a couple of weeks, is the oldest player in the ATP top 15. The narrow spread of ages in the top 15 - there are only 7 years between youngest player Marin Cilic and the great Rog - underlines the achievement of players like Federer and Sampras in winning grand slams over such long periods.

Cricket presents some interesting contrasts. Batting definitely favours maturity. The world's top ten batsmen are all 27 or over, and their average age is 32. But fast bowlers average a comparatively youthful 29 and a half. And not surprisingly, without the same requirement for pace and aggression, spin bowlers are a tad more senior at just below 32.

Meanwhile in cycling, Bradley Wiggins (soon to be Sir Bradley, then Lord Wiggo, surely) should have a couple more shots at Tour glory in him. But, at 32 already, you wouldn't bet on him winning in 2015 or beyond. In any case, I'm already relishing his battle with comparative youngsters Chris Froome and Andy Schleck - both 27 - in the 2013 race.

Euro 2012: fun while it lasted...

Everyone has a view or two on England's performance in Euro 2012. Here are some of mine:

- The positives?  Much better than our showing in South Africa 2010. The team looked relaxed and played with more discipline and spirit than we've seen from England for some time. Defence was strong, because that's how the team was set up. We won the group. 

- The less positives?  Still deficient in possession compared to the top sides. Lacking impact up front and attacking potential/intent throughout the side. Squad is thin, hence the inclusion of some players who were out of their depth (e.g. Young, Henderson).

- Hodgson?  8/10. His appointment was vindicated, and his international experience showed. Can take much of the credit for the improved desire, confidence, spirit and discipline in the team. That said, even with a lack of creative class to work with, you'd like to see an England team put out that looks like it could score a few. Couldn't we be more positive? For example, after Walcott's contribution against Sweden, surely he should have featured more?

- Good performances?  Wellbeck, Gerrard, Parker and the back four all impressed. Carroll, Walcott and Oxtail-Chambermaid contributed when their chance came, although more minutes on the pitch from one or all of them might have improved England's chances of scoring.

- Disappointments?  Hart was less solid in goal than you'd expect. Young was poor, Milner only OK. 

- Rooney?  2/10. Not at the races. Seemed almost mellow and carefree, but at least he didn't misbehave. Maybe Roy slipped some Valium into his Lucozade. Hasn't delivered for England since 2004. I would like to see him tried as a super sub.

- England and penalties?  Having played in a few competitive games (where absolutely nothing but pride is at stake!), I have some idea of how the tension of the moment can affect performance. Still, you'd hope for better from pros. 

- Chances in World Cup 2014?  Another quarter final exit is on the cards, but we could always get lucky.

Smiles in Egypt

Egypt is still very much in the news, and I've been looking back at my photos from a trip there in 1998. There are a few of pyramids, naturally, and hookah pipes and Red Sea snorkelling. But the image below - just a happy family scene from Alexandria - caught my eye.

Jubilations

Polls continue to show overwhelming support for the Queen and the whole idea of monarchy. Only a fifth or so of us support a move to a republic. Even the Australians opted to keep the Queen as their head of state when they had a free choice - yes, really, Australians (see here).

So what conclusions can we draw from the apparently unswerving popularity of the monarchy?

• A lot of people like the status quo. Conservatism runs deeper than we might think, even among younger generations.
• That said, I suspect there are a lot of people who would like to see a scaled-down, more self-sufficient royal family, but who wouldn't go as far as calling for abolition and a republic.
• If you can get away with it, saying very little and promising even less is a great strategy for staying popular and out of trouble. Politicians must wish they had this option, but of course they have to compete for votes and actually do stuff that affects our lives, so it's not.
• Britain will be a monarchy for the foreseeable future, although the Queen will no doubt be a tough act to follow. Maybe the scaled-down option will start to come into play once she is no more on the throne.
• Arguing the rational case for a republic with monarchists (i.e. the majority) is about as fruitful as arguing the case for the non-existence of god with people of faith. This is about heart, not head.

Hope everyone enjoys the long Jubilee weekend!

The Haslemere Cellar - excellent service and wines

How's this for service and expertise in retailing?

I went to The Haslemere Cellar/Cheesebox last weekend looking for something a little bit special for dinner. Our guest was a great friend renowned for his excellent taste and knowledge in food and drink. But as usual I didn't want to spend silly amounts on a bottle of over-priced wine.

The conversation went something like this...

Can I help you?

Yes please, I'd like some wine to go with dinner tonight.

What are you eating?

Beef.

How are you cooking it?

In an oil fondue.

Ok, and what are you having with the beef?

Potatoes.

What type of potatoes?

Sauteed potatoes, possibly some asparagus as well.

Right, you have a couple of choices...

After a bit more discussion, I bought choice A. I don't really care whether the wine - Chianti, btw - really was great or whether the buying experience had conditioned me to think it would be. It was very enjoyable and seemed an ideal match for the food.

You don't get that at the supermarkets, do you?

See Naples and Live

I spent last weekend in Italy with friends. The trip was great fun, and I expect we will return once again next year.

Our destination was the excellent Lido Cerullo, on the beach near the ruins of Paestum. On the way, our coach skirted Naples, the sight of which always takes me straight back to a visit I made there in the summer of 1990. The place made a big impression on me. Being an idealistic teenager, I found its alien ways highly alluring. Grimy, sultry and anarchic, it seemed the opposite of much I'd grown up with in southern England.

But despite a couple of opportunities and trips to the south of Italy, I've been back to Naples itself only once in the intervening 22 years. Like a lot of other people, Naples just hasn't seemed like the right place to take a young family or to head for a romantic weekend. Understandable I guess, but it's a shame more of us don't visit the place, despite all the rave reviews it gets in many travel guides.

Naples has two great attributes for the visitor. Firstly it is hugely atmospheric and exciting. The backstreets are the stuff of Italian cliché - ancient, claustrophobic, chaotic, populated by noisy extraverts fed on the world's best pizza. But you wont find anything comparable in Rome, Milan, Florence or Venice. This is unmistakably the South. Culturally you feel closer to Tangiers than Turin.

Secondly, Naples is simply stunning. They used to say "See Naples and Die" because the city was such a sight to behold. It remains so. Climb up the hill to get a view of the city, the vast bay and looming Vesuvius. The photo to the left, which I took on that trip in 1990, doesn't do it justice.

No other major European city offers your eyes a more awe-inspiring combination of historic urban sprawl and natural beauty. Barcelona doesn't come close, Marseille (another under-rated and under-visited city) is the next best I've been to.

So my recommendation is to take sensible precautions (yes, there is no doubt petty crime to rival any city in Europe) and dive into Naples. It's an experience you won't forget.

Declinism? No thanks, I'll decline

Excellent 40-minute slot this evening on Radio 4 from David Aaronovitch entitled Things Ain't What They Used To Be. Punchy but thought-provoking, it was the type of programme Radio 4 does very well.

I'm with Aaronovitch on the topic in hand. Look at history with any sort of informed clarity and it's surely evident that things have got a lot better for much of the world. We may therefore also believe, quite logically, that they will continue to do so.

On average, we experience lives that are healthier, longer-lived, more peaceful, safer and admittedly less contented than ever before. And looking forward, without taking an absurdly Panglossian outlook, I don't find it that hard to believe that we will find solutions to the world's great challenges. I even suspect the current economic hardships, awful though they are for many right now, will be seen to have positive effects (more of which in future post, no doubt).

The programme asked why pessimism appears to be the default setting in human psychology. One academic posited a fascinating idea. Early humans needed to pay more attention to negative news because it demanded immediate action, unlike most good news. A shout of "lion coming" was much more urgent than one of "no lions around today". This kind of evolutionary reductionism, although easily dismissed, appeals greatly to me. I'm happy to think that there may be a direct link between that alarm call on the ancient savannah and the endless cycle of bad news stories that dominate the media.

So pessimism prevails. What wasn't explained was why it is so unappealing in other people. We naturally are drawn to more upbeat friends, partners and leaders. Optimism is attractive.

To answer my own question, I guess the appeal of optimism is the flip side of pessimism. When the call of "lion" goes out, we fear the worst but are drawn to those who have an optimistic solution that could lead to safety. Despair and inaction will get you eaten.

Marketing that sucks: Henry vs Dyson

Ask a professional cleaner what brand of vacuum they prefer and there's a high chance they will cite lovable little Henry. This product is popular with people who do a lot of vacuuming. That's not because of its cute face, I suspect, but because it does the job well, is tough, simple to operate and seems to be highly reliable.

But which brand dominates the consumer consciousness when it comes to hoovers? Not Henry, not even Hoover. It's Dyson. The Britsh firm has done a brilliant job of positioning its products as simply better by design. A combination of top-notch engineering and marketing by Sir James Dyson and his team has created a very strong brand that attracts a lot of business and a premium price.

Meanwhile Henry is a great example of a sleeper brand. The product is popular and inspires loyalty where it's used, but it's also under-marketed and ineffectively positioned. It has an iconic design and most people have heard of it, but its identity is unclear, its attributes uncommunicated, its price point well below Dyson.

So here's my suggested positioning for Henry. It's the smart choice - no gimmicks, no gadgets, no see-through dual turbo cyclones. Just great results and reliability at a great price. And the killer brand fact: cleaners (and cleaning firms) like to use 'em. Cue market research to demonstrate this and an ad campaign featuring hard-working people hugging their Henrys.

Henry, your time has surely come.

Haslemere Educational Museum

Time to highlight a precious local institution. Haslemere Educational Museum is like a mini British + Natural History museum in one. Bears, giant crabs, Egyptian mummies, palaeolithic hand axes... it's free and it's right on the high street. Highly recommended and every town should have one.

Local elections and scepticism

There was yet another dismal turnout in this week's local elections around the UK. Cue the ever louder voices lamenting that "they're all as bad as one another" and that they can't trust anyone in politics these days (e.g. see the highest rated comments here).

What we seem to forget is that we, the public, have evolved. We are more sceptical than ever before because we know so much more. The media pries into public affairs and public figures in ways unimaginable even twenty years ago. We are lucky to have the knowledge and insight that such prying gives us, but it does breed contempt for those in power and those who want to be in power.

I would therefore tend to read the widespread dissatisfaction with politics as a sign of modern day scepticism, rather than a deterioration of parties or politicians. Today's crop of ministers, MPs and local councillors are surely no more clueless or corrupt than those of any previous period.

So how does democracy flourish in a society with ever increasing disclosure, knowledge and scepticism? That's a question we seem to miss when bemoaning so loudly that there isn't a better calibre of politician for whom we can cast our precious vote.

London less rainy than Paris

As anyone around these parts (south-east UK) will tell you, we've had epic amounts of rain recently. And it's still falling.

However, our British climate is often unfairly maligned, mostly by we Brits. According to my 1997 edition of this reliable source:

London - 153 days with 0.1mm+ rainfall per year
Paris - 162 days

London annual rainfall - 593mm
Paris - 619mm.

And yet which city would most people believe to be the wetter?

Exponential growth

I notice I have received no fewer than 32 page views in two days, with 100% growth between days one and two.

So at current course and speed I will have one page view for every single person on the planet before the end of May. I'm going to call that a "stretch target", but let's see how it goes.

It really is true that if you could fold a piece of paper 27 times it would reach higher than Everest. 100 times and you are somewhere around the width of the known universe. See this for more on exponential growth.